Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-08-11 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-11

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs MILKyle Harrison
Sample3067.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 13.1
Model 19.6% Market 17.0% Gap +1.9pp
FanDuel 465 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.6% Market 81.7% Gap +15.0pp
BetMGM -445 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.6%
85
Exit velocity91.7
90
Hard-hit%52.5%
96
xBA0.364
88
xSLG0.572
71
xwOBA0.356
91
BB%9.6%
63
Bat speed73.1
91
K%19.7%
67
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.1 · RF
81
Arm Strength100.8 · RF
96
Outs Above Avg2.0 · RF
89
Range Runs2.8 · RF
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · RF
46
Bolts23.0 · RF
80
SB Success Rate67.9% · RF
25
Sprint Speed28.9 · RF
88
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.2%
65
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.9%
89
Correct Decisions69.8%
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
85
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.318 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.255 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.337 to 0.417
RegressionNegative · -0.001
Opposing pitcherKyle Harrison
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)