Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-08-29 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-29

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 1 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSD vs TBNick Martinez
Sample3123.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.8
F 12.1
V 13.5
Model 16.3% Market 16.7% Gap -0.9pp
DraftKings 480 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 79.2% Market 80.2% Gap +15.6pp
BetMGM -405 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 27.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 27.7% Market -- Gap +4.6pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.8%
92
Exit velocity92.4
95
Hard-hit%54.2%
97
xBA0.376
94
xSLG0.617
83
xwOBA0.376
98
BB%9.6%
64
Bat speed73.3
91
K%18.9%
72
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.8 · RF
88
Arm Strength100.8 · RF
94
Outs Above Avg2.0 · RF
87
Range Runs3.1 · RF
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · RF
42
Bolts26.0 · RF
80
SB Success Rate64.5% · RF
16
Sprint Speed28.9 · RF
88
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.333 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.257 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.337 to 0.417
RegressionPositive · 0.007
Opposing pitcherNick Martinez
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)