Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · Hitter
IN · 1 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupSD vs CINBrady Singer
Sample3132.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.3
F 12.6
V 14.1
Model 19.9% Market 16.4% Gap +2.8pp
FanDuel 485 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 64.9% Market 80.2% Gap +15.6pp
FanDuel -175 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 26.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 26.6% Market -- Gap +19.9pp
FanDuel 115 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.6%
90
Exit velocity92.0
93
Hard-hit%53.6%
97
xBA0.375
95
xSLG0.611
81
xwOBA0.373
97
BB%9.4%
62
Bat speed73.2
90
K%19.0%
71
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.6 · RF
87
Arm Strength100.8 · RF
94
Outs Above Avg2.0 · RF
87
Range Runs3.2 · RF
80
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · RF
51
Bolts26.0 · RF
80
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
20
Sprint Speed28.9 · RF
88
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.3%
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.9%
86
Correct Decisions70.3%
88
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
86
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.336 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.256 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.009
Opposing pitcherBrady Singer
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)