Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 1 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSD vs NYYMax Fried
Sample3146.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.5
F 12.6
V 11.1
Model 17.0% Market 17.4% Gap -1.0pp
DraftKings 455 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.1% Market 81.1% Gap +16.7pp
BetMGM -430 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.9%
94
Exit velocity92.0
93
Hard-hit%53.9%
98
xBA0.373
94
xSLG0.612
82
xwOBA0.372
97
BB%9.2%
59
Bat speed73.3
91
K%19.1%
71
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.7 · RF
88
Arm Strength100.8 · RF
94
Outs Above Avg2.0 · RF
88
Range Runs3.4 · RF
81
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · RF
52
Bolts29.0 · RF
82
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
20
Sprint Speed28.9 · RF
88
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.4%
70
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.1%
85
Correct Decisions70.4%
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
86
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.334 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.257 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.332
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.337 to 0.417
RegressionPositive · 0.003
Opposing pitcherMax Fried
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)