Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-05-24 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-24

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs PITMitch Keller
Sample3922.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.0
F 17.2
V 12.9
Model 17.4% Market 16.6% Gap +0.2pp
FanDuel 480 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 68.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.4% Market 80.4% Gap -3.6pp
FanDuel 105 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
64 -24 vs proj
Exit velocity91.0
81
Hard-hit%44.9%
70 -21 vs proj
xBA0.344
69
xSLG0.484
40
xwOBA0.359
83
BB%11.7%
76
Bat speed74.9
98
K%10.4%
97
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
44
Range Runs1.0 · 1B
60
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · 1B
33
Sprint Speed26.0 · 1B
21
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.7%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.249 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.229
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.348 to 0.436
RegressionNegative · -0.016
Opposing pitcherMitch Keller
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)