Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-08-25 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-25

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 3 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs KCSeth Lugo
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 18 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.9
F 12.4
V 11.1
Model 17.5% Market 16.6% Gap +0.3pp
FanDuel 480 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 45.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 46.6% Market 45.7% Gap +0.7pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
61 -34 vs proj
Exit velocity90.4
82
Hard-hit%44.2%
76 -18 vs proj
xBA0.333
65
xSLG0.471
38
xwOBA0.334
81 -18 vs proj
BB%9.5%
63 -16 vs proj
Bat speed74.8
97
K%13.0%
94
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg5.0 · 1B
90
Range Runs2.7 · 1B
80
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.9 · 1B
25
SB Success Rate83.3% · 1B
59
Sprint Speed26.3 · 1B
23
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.8%
53
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5%
82
Correct Decisions67.3%
63
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
70

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.348 to 0.436
RegressionPositive · 0.003
Opposing pitcherSeth Lugo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)