Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Juan Soto

NYM · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYM vs CINNick Lodolo
Sample3993.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.7
F 17.9
V 13.5
Model 19.7% Market 23.3% Gap -3.5pp
BetMGM 330 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 45.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 45.7% Market 45.6% Gap +0.7pp
FanDuel 330 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 64.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 64.8% Market -- Gap +4.9pp
FanDuel -230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%13.7%
99
Exit velocity92.4
92
Hard-hit%50.8%
91
xBA0.342
68
xSLG0.765
96
xwOBA0.415
99
BB%13.7%
88
Bat speed70.2
59
K%15.5%
85
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
43
Arm Runs-0.9 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-0.1 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · LF
62
Sprint Speed26.1 · LF
21
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions73.5%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.256 · small sample
small sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.262
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.354
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.374 to 0.470
RegressionNegative · -0.007
Opposing pitcherNick Lodolo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)