Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-05-31 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-31

Juan Soto

NYM · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYM vs MIAJanson Junk
Sample4007.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 19.9% Market 24.1% Gap -4.2pp
BetMGM 315 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 68.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.2% Market 76.6% Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel 100 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +1.3pp
FanDuel 8000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%13.3%
100
Exit velocity92.4
92
Hard-hit%49.2%
87
xBA0.340
66
xSLG0.755
96
xwOBA0.414
99
BB%13.3%
88
Bat speed69.8
52
K%14.9%
86
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength86.8 · LF
11
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
45
Arm Runs-0.9 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs0.2 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · LF
61
Sprint Speed25.9 · LF
18
SB Success Rate66.7% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.7%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions69.9%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.310 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.301 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.383
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.374 to 0.470
RegressionNegative · -0.019
Opposing pitcherJanson Junk
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)