Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 21 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Leody Taveras

BAL · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs HOUHunter Brown
Sample2024.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.109, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.080, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.059, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 58.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 65.6% Market 66.7% Gap +8.3pp
BetMGM -200 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
27 -15 vs proj
Exit velocity83.6
9
Hard-hit%30.8%
16 -31 vs proj
xBA0.311
38
xSLG0.469
35
xwOBA0.288
30
BB%9.5%
61 +31 vs proj
Bat speed68.7
36
K%25.6%
34
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · CF
82
Arm Strength98.2 · CF
88
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
46
Range Runs-3.7 · CF
14
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.3 · CF
90
Bolts25.0 · CF
85
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
34
Sprint Speed29.0 · CF
90
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.2%
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.7%
72
Correct Decisions67.8%
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.326
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.400
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.248 to 0.346
RegressionNegative · -0.043
Opposing pitcherHunter Brown
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-21
Palantir 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.008 14d error falling
Fangorn 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 4743 props Brier 0.121 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)