Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Leody Taveras

BAL · Hitter
IN · 9 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs COLTanner Gordon
Sample2148.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 56.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 67.1% Market 68.2% Gap +12.1pp
BetMGM -215 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.2%
25 -21 vs proj
Exit velocity84.3
14
Hard-hit%34.0%
29 -22 vs proj
xBA0.299
27
xSLG0.451
31
xwOBA0.276
22 -15 vs proj
BB%8.8%
55 +22 vs proj
Bat speed68.4
33
K%25.3%
35
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · CF
55
Arm Strength98.2 · CF
84
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
48
Range Runs-1.9 · CF
27
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.2 · CF
83
Bolts33.0 · CF
88
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
33
Sprint Speed28.9 · CF
88
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.5%
46
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0%
80
Correct Decisions66.5%
55
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
62
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.298 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.316
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.395
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.042
Opposing pitcherTanner Gordon
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)