Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Oneil Cruz

PIT · Hitter
IN · 5 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupPIT vs CHCBen Brown
Sample1596.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.9
F 17.9
V 13.5
Model 18.5% Market 14.5% Gap +3.5pp
FanDuel 565 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 33.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 33.8% Market 60.0% Gap +0.5pp
FanDuel 310 tracking Open board
Hits 2.5
P 60.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 60.0% Market -- Gap +0.9pp
FanDuel -150 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.6%
91
Exit velocity96.1
100
Hard-hit%61.8%
100
xBA0.405
97
xSLG0.787
97
xwOBA0.335
70
BB%8.0%
39 -27 vs proj
Bat speed76.7
99
K%35.7%
2
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.6 · CF
74
Arm Strength101.9 · CF
98
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
8
Range Runs-2.2 · CF
15
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · CF
94
Bolts6.0 · CF
64
SB Success Rate81.2% · CF
53
Sprint Speed28.3 · CF
78
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 50.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions50.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.269 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.259 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.279 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline92
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.040
Opposing pitcherBen Brown
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)