Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-07-09 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-09

Oneil Cruz

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IL10 · 9 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupPIT vs ATLBryce Elder
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 55.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 62.1% Market 63.0% Gap +7.4pp
BetMGM -170 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.0%
90
Exit velocity96.2
100
Hard-hit%60.0%
100
xBA0.421
99
xSLG0.810
98
xwOBA0.358
88
BB%10.7%
72
Bat speed76.6
99
K%34.3%
4
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · CF
52
Arm Strength101.9 · CF
99
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · CF
5
Range Runs-2.4 · CF
23
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.1 · CF
90
Bolts8.0 · CF
65
SB Success Rate81.0% · CF
49
Sprint Speed28.4 · CF
79
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.2%
48
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0%
41
Correct Decisions63.8%
27
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
45
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.319 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.353
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.296 to 0.372
RegressionNegative · -0.038
Opposing pitcherBryce Elder
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)