Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYY vs KCMichael Wacha
Sample2296.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.6
F 17.2
V 13.0
Model 18.2% Market 18.8% Gap -1.2pp
DraftKings 415 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 41.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 41.3% Market 41.2% Gap +0.6pp
DraftKings 135 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.1%
24 -54 vs proj
Exit velocity88.0
42
Hard-hit%37.0%
35 -28 vs proj
xBA0.303
32
xSLG0.485
40
xwOBA0.274
18 -46 vs proj
BB%10.2%
65
Bat speed70.6
66
K%28.8%
18
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 2B
33
Arm Strength83.6 · 2B
33
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 2B
93
Range Runs2.9 · 2B
87
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.3 · 2B
88
Bolts3.0 · 2B
42
SB Success Rate90.0% · 2B
81
Sprint Speed28.4 · 2B
81
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.9%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions75.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.270 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.276 to 0.362
RegressionNegative · -0.067
Opposing pitcherMichael Wacha
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)