Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 21 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 6 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupNYY vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto
Sample2432.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.109, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.080, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.059, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.7
F 15.5
V 15.2
Model 19.0% Market 18.6% Gap -0.2pp
DraftKings 420 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.5% Market 77.5% Gap +11.1pp
BetMGM -345 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
48 -34 vs proj
Exit velocity89.7
69
Hard-hit%41.4%
61
xBA0.316
43
xSLG0.544
62
xwOBA0.291
33 -34 vs proj
BB%10.4%
72
Bat speed70.9
69
K%29.0%
18
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 2B
45
Arm Strength83.6 · 2B
30
Outs Above Avg8.0 · 2B
96
Range Runs5.8 · 2B
93
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.9 · 2B
97
Bolts5.0 · 2B
55
SB Success Rate88.0% · 2B
73
Sprint Speed28.4 · 2B
79
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.2%
63
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.7%
19
Correct Decisions65.6%
44
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
45
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.310 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.244 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.304
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.306
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.276 to 0.362
RegressionNegative · -0.034
Opposing pitcherYoshinobu Yamamoto
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-21
Palantir 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.008 14d error falling
Fangorn 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 4743 props Brier 0.121 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)