Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Carlos Narváez

BOS · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 8 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupBOS vs BALShane Baz
Sample642.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 54.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 64.3% Market 65.5% Gap +11.3pp
BetMGM -190 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
36 -21 vs proj
Exit velocity87.2
43
Hard-hit%38.3%
50 -28 vs proj
xBA0.310
39
xSLG0.494
47
xwOBA0.263
15 -27 vs proj
BB%6.9%
31 -18 vs proj
Bat speed69.1
43
K%32.1%
9 -27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.4 · C
96
Catcher Throwing-0.4 · C
44
Framing Runs2.2 · C
74
Pop Time2.0 · C
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.3 · C
8
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.2%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.262 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.303 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.252 to 0.347
RegressionPositive · 0.009
Opposing pitcherShane Baz
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)