Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Carlos Narváez

BOS · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 8 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupBOS vs KCSeth Lugo
Sample651.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 54.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 64.4% Market 65.5% Gap +11.2pp
BetMGM -190 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.8%
35
Exit velocity87.4
45
Hard-hit%38.1%
48
xBA0.305
35
xSLG0.485
45
xwOBA0.262
15
BB%6.6%
29
Bat speed69.2
43
K%31.7%
10
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.9 · C
98
Catcher Throwing-0.5 · C
42
Framing Runs2.1 · C
74
Pop Time2.0 · C
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.3 · C
8
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.8%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.7%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.267 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.283
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.252 to 0.347
RegressionPositive · 0.007
Opposing pitcherSeth Lugo
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)