Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-08-23 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-23

Jonathan Aranda

TB · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupTB vs BALShane Baz
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 14 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.2
F 14.1
V 11.8
Model 19.3% Market 12.8% Gap +6.1pp
DraftKings 655 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.2% Market 78.3% Gap +14.4pp
BetMGM -360 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.7% Market -- Gap +8.6pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.5%
74
Exit velocity91.1
87
Hard-hit%45.6%
80
xBA0.361
87
xSLG0.612
82
xwOBA0.353
90
BB%10.5%
72 +16 vs proj
Bat speed68.5
34
K%22.9%
48
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · 1B
98
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
27
Range Runs-0.9 · 1B
44
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.8 · 1B
6
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
11

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.309 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.014
Opposing pitcherShane Baz
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)