Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-08-30 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-30

Jonathan Aranda

TB · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs SDRobbie Ray
Sample1161.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 48.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 57.4% Market 58.3% Gap +9.9pp
BetMGM -140 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 6.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 6.9% Market -- Gap +18.0pp
FanDuel 320 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
70
Exit velocity91.1
88
Hard-hit%45.3%
81
xBA0.359
87
xSLG0.608
81
xwOBA0.349
89
BB%10.1%
69
Bat speed68.5
35
K%23.1%
47
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · 1B
98
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
28
Range Runs-0.9 · 1B
45
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.9 · 1B
6
Sprint Speed25.7 · 1B
12
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.1%
68
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7%
55
Correct Decisions68.0%
71
Resists FastballwOBA 0.318
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.338 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.298 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.309
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.344 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.393
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.309 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.011
Opposing pitcherRobbie Ray
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)