Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Jonathan Aranda

TB · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs TEXTrevor Williams
Sample1176.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.0
F 16.1
V 11.9
Model 19.3% Market 12.8% Gap +6.0pp
DraftKings 655 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.2% Market 78.3% Gap +15.6pp
BetMGM -360 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
70
Exit velocity91.2
89
Hard-hit%46.2%
85
xBA0.356
86
xSLG0.607
81
xwOBA0.348
89
BB%10.2%
69
Bat speed68.6
35
K%23.3%
48
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · 1B
98
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
46
Range Runs-0.1 · 1B
54
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.9 · 1B
6
Sprint Speed25.7 · 1B
12
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.0%
68
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.3%
60
Correct Decisions68.2%
72
Resists FastballwOBA 0.303
96
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
71
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.338 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.302 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.315
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.344 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.395
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.309 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherTrevor Williams
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)