Mithrandir Metrics
LAA 2026-08-09 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-09

Josh Lowe

LAA · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAA vs MIARyan Gusto
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 16 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.9
F 13.4
V 10.4
Model 19.7% Market 12.2% Gap +7.2pp
DraftKings 695 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 71.1% Market 72.2% Gap +13.0pp
BetMGM -260 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 15.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 15.2% Market -- Gap +2.6pp
FanDuel 460 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
65
Exit velocity87.8
48
Hard-hit%36.8%
40 -23 vs proj
xBA0.314
41
xSLG0.570
70
xwOBA0.295
37 -20 vs proj
BB%7.4%
37
Bat speed71.7
78
K%27.7%
23 -17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.0 · LF
90
Arm Strength91.7 · LF
37
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
47
Range Runs1.5 · LF
66
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts2.0 · LF
31
Sprint Speed28.0 · LF
66
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.271 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.021
Opposing pitcherRyan Gusto
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)