Mithrandir Metrics
LAA 2026-08-25 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-25

Josh Lowe

LAA · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAA vs CLEGavin Williams
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.4
F 12.4
V 13.4
Model 19.2% Market 12.8% Gap +5.8pp
FanDuel 650 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 34.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 31.0% Market 30.6% Gap +3.4pp
FanDuel 215 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
57
Exit velocity87.9
49
Hard-hit%37.9%
47 -16 vs proj
xBA0.318
50
xSLG0.563
70
xwOBA0.288
32 -26 vs proj
BB%6.6%
30
Bat speed71.0
73
K%29.0%
18 -23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.2 · LF
92
Arm Strength91.7 · LF
35
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
48
Range Runs1.6 · LF
67
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts2.0 · LF
29
SB Success Rate80.0% · LF
50
Sprint Speed28.1 · LF
69
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.4%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.3%
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.271 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.026
Opposing pitcherGavin Williams
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)