Mithrandir Metrics
LAA 2026-05-23 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-23

Jo Adell

LAA · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi
Sample1712.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.9
F 15.7
V 11.8
Model 15.2% Market 19.6% Gap -4.4pp
BetMGM 410 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
55 -30 vs proj
Exit velocity91.8
88
Hard-hit%47.1%
80
xBA0.361
81
xSLG0.592
73
xwOBA0.329
66
BB%3.0%
4 -32 vs proj
Bat speed75.3
99
K%25.5%
32
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.8 · RF
4
Arm Strength91.8 · RF
48
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
19
Range Runs-1.2 · RF
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · RF
34
Sprint Speed27.9 · RF
69
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 37.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions53.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.166
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.373
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherNathan Eovaldi
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)