Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-07-11 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-11

Edouard Julien

COL · Hitter
IN · 7 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs SFTyler Mahle
Sample994.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.9
F 14.5
V 11.8
Model 15.3% Market 10.9% Gap +4.1pp
DraftKings 790 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 41.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 41.2% Market 61.5% Gap +7.1pp
FanDuel 195 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 13.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 13.8% Market -- Gap +8.8pp
FanDuel 380 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
42 -22 vs proj
Exit velocity91.0
86
Hard-hit%51.6%
94 +20 vs proj
xBA0.366
86
xSLG0.586
72
xwOBA0.344
80
BB%14.7%
96
Bat speed69.3
44
K%26.4%
30
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 2B
28
Arm Strength79.7 · 2B
8
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 2B
27
Range Runs-3.0 · 2B
20
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · 2B
23
SB Success Rate60.0% · 2B
10
Sprint Speed26.6 · 2B
29
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.9%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions70.9%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.017
Opposing pitcherTyler Mahle
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)