Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-07-09 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-09

Adolis García

PHI · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IL60 · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupPHI vs CINBrady Singer
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.5
F 15.5
V 14.6
Model 19.8% Market 17.0% Gap +2.1pp
FanDuel 465 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.4% Market 75.3% Gap +10.4pp
BetMGM -305 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
61
Exit velocity92.4
94
Hard-hit%48.8%
88
xBA0.346
74
xSLG0.569
70
xwOBA0.294
35
BB%8.6%
50
Bat speed69.9
54
K%31.3%
11
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.2 · RF
85
Arm Strength96.8 · RF
78
Outs Above Avg4.0 · RF
95
Range Runs3.4 · RF
86
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · RF
60
Sprint Speed26.5 · RF
28
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.5%
65
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.8%
79
Correct Decisions67.7%
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
78
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.268 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.328
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.296 to 0.374
RegressionNegative · -0.017
Opposing pitcherBrady Singer
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)