Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-07-12 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-12

Adolis García

PHI · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IL60 · 4 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupPHI vs DETTarik Skubal
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.0
F 14.9
V 13.3
Model 17.6% Market 18.2% Gap -1.3pp
DraftKings 430 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 75.5% Market 76.5% Gap +10.7pp
BetMGM -325 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
60 -19 vs proj
Exit velocity92.4
94
Hard-hit%48.8%
88
xBA0.346
76
xSLG0.569
69
xwOBA0.294
35 -29 vs proj
BB%8.6%
50 +19 vs proj
Bat speed69.9
53
K%31.3%
11 -25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.2 · RF
85
Arm Strength96.8 · RF
77
Outs Above Avg4.0 · RF
95
Range Runs3.4 · RF
85
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · RF
59
Sprint Speed26.5 · RF
28
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.5%
65
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.8%
79
Correct Decisions67.7%
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
78
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.268 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.328
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.296 to 0.374
RegressionNegative · -0.017
Opposing pitcherTarik Skubal
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)