Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

AZ · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IL10 · 4 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupAZ vs SFLanden Roupp
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 42.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 42.6% Market 42.4% Gap +0.2pp
DraftKings 130 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.9%
46
Exit velocity87.5
36
Hard-hit%36.0%
30 -17 vs proj
xBA0.292
23
xSLG0.411
19
xwOBA0.290
32 -19 vs proj
BB%7.8%
38 +20 vs proj
Bat speed68.9
38
K%18.6%
69
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength93.0 · LF
61
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · LF
2
Arm Runs0.5 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-2.9 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.0 · LF
20
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 50.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 0.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.7%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.263 · small sample
small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.295 to 0.362
RegressionPositive · 0.025
Opposing pitcherLanden Roupp
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)