Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

AZ · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IL10 · 4 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupAZ vs PITMitch Keller
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 36.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 42.6% Market 43.5% Gap +7.4pp
BetMGM 130 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.7%
30 -20 vs proj
Exit velocity87.3
39
Hard-hit%34.3%
29 -24 vs proj
xBA0.290
20
xSLG0.392
9
xwOBA0.277
21 -36 vs proj
BB%5.3%
16
Bat speed68.7
36
K%18.0%
75
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · LF
79
Arm Strength93.6 · LF
57
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · LF
6
Range Runs-2.7 · LF
21
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.0 · LF
18
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.6%
Small sample
Correct Decisions62.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.254 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.332
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.295 to 0.362
RegressionPositive · 0.025
Opposing pitcherMitch Keller
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)