Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

AZ · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IN · 4 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupAZ vs KCMichael Wacha
Sample3465.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 18 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 36.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 42.6% Market 43.5% Gap +6.7pp
BetMGM 130 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
32 -21 vs proj
Exit velocity87.4
44
Hard-hit%33.8%
29 -29 vs proj
xBA0.290
21
xSLG0.391
11
xwOBA0.275
23 -37 vs proj
BB%5.2%
16
Bat speed68.8
38
K%18.2%
76
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · LF
71
Arm Strength93.6 · LF
52
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · LF
7
Range Runs-2.8 · LF
20
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.0 · LF
17
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.7%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions61.8%
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.295 to 0.362
RegressionPositive · 0.028
Opposing pitcherMichael Wacha
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)