Mithrandir Metrics
ATH 2026-07-04 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-04

Brent Rooker

ATH · Hitter
IL10 · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATH vs MIASandy Alcantara
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.4
F 14.9
V 16.1
Model 18.7% Market 21.5% Gap -2.8pp
BetMGM 365 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 75.8% Market 76.7% Gap +12.7pp
BetMGM -330 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.8%
94
Exit velocity90.3
76
Hard-hit%43.3%
67
xBA0.325
53
xSLG0.684
91
xwOBA0.314
58
BB%8.8%
52
Bat speed72.5
83
K%30.7%
13
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · RF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
66 Regression applied
Range Runs0.0 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.6 · DH
56
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.023
Opposing pitcherSandy Alcantara
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)