Mithrandir Metrics
ATH 2026-07-22 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-22

Brent Rooker

ATH · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IL60 · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATH vs AZMerrill Kelly
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.2
F 12.2
V 15.1
Model 19.2% Market 21.5% Gap -2.3pp
BetMGM 365 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 39.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 40.0% Market 39.3% Gap +0.4pp
FanDuel 145 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.8%
96
Exit velocity90.3
78
Hard-hit%43.3%
69 -18 vs proj
xBA0.325
55
xSLG0.684
92
xwOBA0.314
59 -32 vs proj
BB%8.8%
54
Bat speed72.5
83
K%30.7%
14 -24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · RF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
66 Regression applied
Range Runs0.0 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.6 · DH
55
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.307 to 0.394
RegressionNegative · -0.023
Opposing pitcherMerrill Kelly
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)