Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Randy Arozarena

SEA · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 4 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSEA vs SFRobbie Ray
Sample3243.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.9
F 13.6
V 14.3
Model 17.1% Market 14.4% Gap +2.2pp
FanDuel 570 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 57.8% Market 73.3% Gap +10.0pp
FanDuel 135 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 17.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.7% Market -- Gap +8.2pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.4%
55 -24 vs proj
Exit velocity90.9
85
Hard-hit%41.8%
63 -24 vs proj
xBA0.354
80
xSLG0.569
70
xwOBA0.351
85
BB%9.8%
66
Bat speed68.8
38
K%21.9%
53
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.9 · LF
7
Arm Strength90.7 · LF
28
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · LF
6
Range Runs-2.6 · LF
21
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.7 · LF
92
SB Success Rate89.5% · LF
77
Sprint Speed26.9 · LF
37
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.4%
44
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4%
47
Correct Decisions64.7%
34
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
43
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.308 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.301 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.325
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.277 to 0.369
RegressionNegative · -0.050
Opposing pitcherRobbie Ray
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)