Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-07-22 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-22

Randy Arozarena

SEA · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSEA vs CINBrady Singer
Sample3253.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.6
F 14.9
V 14.5
Model 17.9% Market 13.8% Gap +3.5pp
FanDuel 595 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 32.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 32.3% Market 31.9% Gap +1.0pp
FanDuel 400 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 18.8% Market -- Gap +8.2pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
52 -27 vs proj
Exit velocity90.9
85
Hard-hit%41.8%
62 -24 vs proj
xBA0.352
79
xSLG0.563
67
xwOBA0.352
85
BB%9.8%
66
Bat speed68.8
37
K%21.7%
56 +16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.9 · LF
7
Arm Strength90.7 · LF
28
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · LF
6
Range Runs-2.9 · LF
19
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.7 · LF
93
SB Success Rate89.5% · LF
77
Sprint Speed27.0 · LF
39
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.4%
44
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4%
47
Correct Decisions64.7%
34
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
43
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.308 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.301 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.325
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.277 to 0.369
RegressionNegative · -0.053
Opposing pitcherBrady Singer
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)