Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-08-12 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-12

Randy Arozarena

SEA · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupSEA vs NYYWill Warren
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 16 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 12.9
Model 18.5% Market 13.8% Gap +4.1pp
FanDuel 595 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.8% Market 71.8% Gap +12.9pp
BetMGM -255 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 18.6% Market -- Gap +9.2pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
59
Exit velocity90.9
86
Hard-hit%42.5%
68
xBA0.354
82
xSLG0.566
69
xwOBA0.353
90
BB%9.7%
65
Bat speed68.7
38
K%21.1%
57
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.7 · LF
11
Arm Strength90.7 · LF
25
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · LF
4
Range Runs-3.3 · LF
16
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.4 · LF
90
SB Success Rate85.7% · LF
67
Sprint Speed26.9 · LF
36

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.277 to 0.369
RegressionNegative · -0.042
Opposing pitcherWill Warren
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)