Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-07-01 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-01

Jake Rogers

DET · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 9 Hitter-Friendly
MatchupDET vs NYYWill Warren
Sample1060.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.7
F 11.4
V 8.7
Model 20.0% Market 14.4% Gap +5.0pp
FanDuel 565 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 55.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 65.2% Market 66.1% Gap +10.4pp
BetMGM -195 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.3%
40 -25 vs proj
Exit velocity85.3
20
Hard-hit%31.5%
19 -46 vs proj
xBA0.255
5
xSLG0.443
27
xwOBA0.239
5 -50 vs proj
BB%9.8%
64 +27 vs proj
Bat speed67.3
23
K%29.3%
17
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.4 · C
27
Catcher Throwing0.4 · C
69
Framing Runs-1.7 · C
25
Pop Time2.0 · C
42
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · C
25
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.9%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 35.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions62.4%
Small sample
Fastball Stuff+68
Small sample
Mithrandir Stuff+62
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.309
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.339
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.237 to 0.351
RegressionNo current flag
Opposing pitcherWill Warren
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)