Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-05-24 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-24

Jj Bleday

CIN · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 7 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore
Sample1424.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.1
F 11.1
V 8.3
Model 18.7% Market 13.7% Gap +4.4pp
FanDuel 600 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 58.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 58.0% Market 66.9% Gap -3.7pp
FanDuel 135 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.2%
94 +46 vs proj
Exit velocity92.2
91
Hard-hit%52.7%
95 +57 vs proj
xBA0.357
79
xSLG0.677
88
xwOBA0.408
98 +61 vs proj
BB%13.9%
90 +25 vs proj
Bat speed71.7
76
K%16.7%
80 +45 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
19
Arm Runs-0.5 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-0.3 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.5 · LF
59
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 16.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions74.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.243 · small sample
small sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.220
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.281 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.071
Opposing pitcherMatthew Liberatore
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)