Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Jj Bleday

CIN · Hitter
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs SDMichael King
Sample1724.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.5
F 11.1
V 10.6
Model 17.5% Market 12.8% Gap +4.2pp
FanDuel 650 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 54.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 54.8% Market 67.2% Gap +11.9pp
FanDuel 120 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 13.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 13.0% Market -- Gap +14.1pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.5%
74 +20 vs proj
Exit velocity88.5
58
Hard-hit%40.3%
58
xBA0.330
64
xSLG0.582
75
xwOBA0.349
90 +49 vs proj
BB%13.6%
94 +24 vs proj
Bat speed71.6
76
K%21.4%
58 +19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · LF
70
Arm Strength98.5 · LF
85
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
22
Range Runs-1.4 · LF
32
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · LF
54
SB Success Rate60.0% · LF
11
Sprint Speed27.5 · LF
51
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.5%
86
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.4%
77
Correct Decisions71.7%
93
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
91
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.341 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.263
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherMichael King
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)