Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Jj Bleday

CIN · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCIN vs LADTarik Skubal
Sample1749.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 45.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 53.1% Market 54.5% Gap +8.7pp
BetMGM -120 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.7%
78 +24 vs proj
Exit velocity88.3
55
Hard-hit%40.3%
59
xBA0.325
58
xSLG0.576
74
xwOBA0.345
89 +46 vs proj
BB%13.4%
94 +23 vs proj
Bat speed71.4
75
K%21.6%
57 +16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · LF
56
Arm Strength98.5 · LF
85
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
24
Range Runs-0.6 · LF
39
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · LF
51
SB Success Rate60.0% · LF
12
Sprint Speed27.4 · LF
49
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.2%
84
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.6%
75
Correct Decisions71.6%
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
89

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.281 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.007
Opposing pitcherTarik Skubal
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)