Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-07-02 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-02

Spencer Steer

CIN · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs MILJacob Misiorowski
Sample2044.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.1
F 16.6
V 12.9
Model 21.6% Market 13.8% Gap +7.3pp
DraftKings 600 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 69.7% Market 70.6% Gap +11.1pp
BetMGM -240 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.5%
88 +43 vs proj
Exit velocity89.6
67
Hard-hit%41.2%
60 +17 vs proj
xBA0.334
63
xSLG0.628
82
xwOBA0.340
77 +19 vs proj
BB%9.1%
56
Bat speed69.6
51
K%22.9%
46
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.6 · 1B
1
Arm Strength91.3 · 1B
83
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
42
Range Runs-2.5 · 1B
24
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · LF
88
Sprint Speed28.4 · LF
80
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.3%
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4%
37
Correct Decisions68.0%
69
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
61
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.381 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.279 to 0.361
RegressionNegative · -0.025
Opposing pitcherJacob Misiorowski
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)