Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Spencer Steer

CIN · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs COLTomoyuki Sugano
Sample2080.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.1
F 14.4
V 12.4
Model 22.1% Market 13.8% Gap +7.8pp
DraftKings 600 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.1
F 63.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V 63.0 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 59.1% Market 74.0% Gap +10.2pp
FanDuel -130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.6
F 24.6 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 24.6% Market -- Gap +11.7pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.9%
85 +41 vs proj
Exit velocity90.0
74
Hard-hit%43.1%
67 +23 vs proj
xBA0.339
67
xSLG0.621
82
xwOBA0.346
83 +24 vs proj
BB%9.3%
58
Bat speed69.5
48
K%22.0%
52
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.7 · 1B
4
Arm Strength91.3 · 1B
82
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
68
Range Runs-1.8 · 1B
30
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.2 · 1B
89
Bolts1.0 · 1B
15
Sprint Speed28.5 · 1B
82
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.3%
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4%
37
Correct Decisions68.0%
69
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
61
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.381 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.279 to 0.361
RegressionNegative · -0.028
Opposing pitcherTomoyuki Sugano
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)