Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Spencer Steer

CIN · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs COLRyan Feltner
Sample2084.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.0
F 14.9
V 12.8
Model 18.6% Market 13.8% Gap +4.3pp
DraftKings 600 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 54.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 54.4% Market 71.0% Gap +9.3pp
FanDuel -120 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.7% Market -- Gap +13.6pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.4%
87 +43 vs proj
Exit velocity90.1
75
Hard-hit%43.4%
69 +24 vs proj
xBA0.341
69
xSLG0.634
84
xwOBA0.349
84 +25 vs proj
BB%9.2%
57
Bat speed69.5
48
K%22.0%
52
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.7 · 1B
5
Arm Strength91.3 · 1B
82
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
68
Range Runs-1.5 · 1B
32
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.2 · 1B
90
Bolts1.0 · 1B
15
Sprint Speed28.5 · 1B
81
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.3%
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4%
37
Correct Decisions68.0%
69
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
61
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.381 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.279 to 0.361
RegressionNegative · -0.032
Opposing pitcherRyan Feltner
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)