Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Spencer Steer

CIN · Hitter
IL10 · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs SDMichael King
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.3
F 12.4
V 12.2
Model 18.8% Market 13.8% Gap +4.5pp
DraftKings 600 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.7% Market 71.8% Gap +13.1pp
BetMGM -255 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.9%
86
Exit velocity89.6
72
Hard-hit%42.6%
71
xBA0.334
68
xSLG0.614
82
xwOBA0.342
86
BB%8.9%
56
Bat speed69.6
49
K%22.0%
53
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.0 · 1B
4
Arm Strength91.3 · 1B
79
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
72
Range Runs-1.6 · 1B
35
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.0 · 1B
80
Bolts1.0 · 1B
12
Sprint Speed28.5 · 1B
81
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.3%
70
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4%
38
Correct Decisions68.0%
71
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
64
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.378 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.024
Opposing pitcherMichael King
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)