Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-07-09 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-09

Mark Vientos

NYM · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 7 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupNYM vs KCMichael Wacha
Sample1328.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 61.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 69.6% Market 70.6% Gap +9.2pp
BetMGM -240 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.5%
81
Exit velocity89.9
73
Hard-hit%43.9%
71 -15 vs proj
xBA0.315
42
xSLG0.602
76
xwOBA0.308
51 -18 vs proj
BB%4.9%
13 -18 vs proj
Bat speed71.8
77
K%23.9%
41
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.4 · 1B
42
Outs Above Avg-9.0 · 1B
1
Range Runs-6.3 · 1B
4
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.7 · 1B
13
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.8%
23
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.7%
86
Correct Decisions66.4%
53
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
43
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.315
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.342
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.377
RegressionPositive · 0.017
Opposing pitcherMichael Wacha
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)