Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Royce Lewis

MIN · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs DETJackson Jobe
Sample1299.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.6
F 11.7
V 12.1
Model 15.3% Market 15.2% Gap -0.5pp
DraftKings 535 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 52.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 52.9% Market 69.7% Gap +12.3pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 17.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.0% Market -- Gap +10.2pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.3%
82
Exit velocity89.3
68
Hard-hit%39.8%
55
xBA0.333
67
xSLG0.558
68
xwOBA0.313
60
BB%8.0%
45
Bat speed72.6
86
K%24.2%
42
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 1B
54
Arm Strength83.2 · 1B
17
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 1B
18
Range Runs-2.9 · 1B
23
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.1 · 1B
82
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
94
Sprint Speed27.8 · 1B
60
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.6%
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4%
68
Correct Decisions65.0%
39
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.251
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.361 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.305
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.284 to 0.357
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherJackson Jobe
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)