Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-10-24 Refreshed Oct 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-10-24

Brice Turang

MIL · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIL vs TBDrew Rasmussen
Sample2129.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Home Runs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.121, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Home Runs · Fangorn calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.124, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Home Runs · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.120, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.5
F 12.4
V 10.1
Model 12.2% Market 10.0% Gap +1.8pp
DraftKings 865 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 78.8% Market 79.8% Gap +15.6pp
BetMGM -395 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +4.8pp
FanDuel 17500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
49 +16 vs proj
Exit velocity88.6
59
Hard-hit%41.8%
67 +17 vs proj
xBA0.358
87
xSLG0.601
80
xwOBA0.344
88 +15 vs proj
BB%13.5%
94 +37 vs proj
Bat speed67.1
22
K%24.7%
40 -22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 2B
46
Arm Strength87.1 · 2B
49
Outs Above Avg16.0 · 2B
98
Range Runs10.7 · 2B
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · 2B
54
Bolts5.0 · 2B
45
SB Success Rate70.6% · 2B
27
Sprint Speed28.6 · 2B
82
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334
55
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.312 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.322 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.362 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.424
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.361
RegressionNegative · -0.033
Opposing pitcherDrew Rasmussen
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-10-26
Palantir 22485 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d error rising
Fangorn 22485 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error rising
Valinor 16797 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d error rising
Palantir 2000 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 sample building
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1496 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 sample building
Palantir 10922 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.042 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 889 props Brier 0.170 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1106 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)