Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-05-28 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-28

Adley Rutschman

BAL · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs TORPatrick Corbin
Sample2021.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.0
F 14.2
V 10.7
Model 19.1% Market 11.9% Gap +6.8pp
DraftKings 710 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 74.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.7% Market 72.1% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel -300 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 65.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 65.7% Market -- Gap --pp
Internal -- tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.9%
74 +22 vs proj
Exit velocity89.5
60
Hard-hit%46.2%
76 +35 vs proj
xBA0.346
72
xSLG0.570
67
xwOBA0.367
87
BB%9.2%
55
Bat speed69.6
49
K%14.4%
88
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.3 · C
60
Catcher Throwing2.1 · C
95
Framing Runs4.4 · C
100
Pop Time2.0 · C
40
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · C
48
Sprint Speed26.7 · C
33
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.8%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.5%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.257 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.296 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.386
RegressionNegative · -0.040
Opposing pitcherPatrick Corbin
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)