Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-06-14 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-14

Adley Rutschman

BAL · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs SDWalker Buehler
Sample2064.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
Model 21.9% Market 11.9% Gap +9.5pp
DraftKings 710 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 56.0% Market 72.1% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 115 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.9% Market -- Gap +6.5pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.0%
77 +25 vs proj
Exit velocity90.1
73
Hard-hit%48.0%
85 +42 vs proj
xBA0.345
71
xSLG0.571
66
xwOBA0.374
92 +21 vs proj
BB%10.6%
71
Bat speed69.5
48
K%13.2%
92
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.4 · C
74
Catcher Throwing2.1 · C
94
Framing Runs5.4 · C
100
Pop Time2.0 · C
45
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · C
47
Sprint Speed26.6 · C
30
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.2%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.1%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.316 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.378 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.386
RegressionNegative · -0.024
Opposing pitcherWalker Buehler
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)