Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Adley Rutschman

BAL · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs HOUHunter Brown
Sample2126.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.8
F 12.2
V 14.9
Model 20.8% Market 11.9% Gap +8.5pp
DraftKings 710 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 54.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 54.6% Market 74.7% Gap +10.4pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 18.5% Market -- Gap +7.8pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.4%
55
Exit velocity89.3
65
Hard-hit%42.5%
65 +19 vs proj
xBA0.328
57
xSLG0.518
53
xwOBA0.349
84
BB%10.2%
69
Bat speed69.2
43
K%13.6%
91
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.7 · C
81
Catcher Throwing3.3 · C
99
Framing Runs5.0 · C
96
Pop Time1.9 · C
49
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · C
25
Sprint Speed26.2 · C
22
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.2%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.312 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.371 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.353
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.293 to 0.380
RegressionNegative · -0.014
Opposing pitcherHunter Brown
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)