Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-08-26 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-26

Adley Rutschman

BAL · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs STLMichael McGreevy
Sample2167.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.9
F 11.9
V 12.9
Model 18.8% Market 11.9% Gap +6.5pp
DraftKings 710 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 35.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 33.3% Market 32.7% Gap +3.1pp
FanDuel 195 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.8% Market -- Gap +5.8pp
FanDuel 250 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
56
Exit velocity88.8
60
Hard-hit%41.9%
65 +17 vs proj
xBA0.319
51
xSLG0.515
56
xwOBA0.340
83
BB%10.7%
75
Bat speed68.9
40
K%15.3%
88
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.0 · C
83
Catcher Throwing3.3 · C
95
Framing Runs5.4 · C
93
Pop Time1.9 · C
49
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.7 · C
16
Sprint Speed26.3 · C
23
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.7%
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.1%
31
Correct Decisions66.0%
49
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
66
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.316 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.372 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.345
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.321
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.386
RegressionNegative · -0.005
Opposing pitcherMichael McGreevy
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)