Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Adley Rutschman

BAL · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupBAL vs COLTanner Gordon
Sample2179.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 12.3
Model 21.3% Market 11.9% Gap +9.0pp
DraftKings 710 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 55.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 55.7% Market 75.6% Gap +14.1pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.5% Market -- Gap +2.6pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
54
Exit velocity88.7
60
Hard-hit%41.6%
65 +16 vs proj
xBA0.321
54
xSLG0.513
54
xwOBA0.338
83
BB%10.3%
71
Bat speed68.9
40
K%15.6%
86
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.8 · C
80
Catcher Throwing3.3 · C
96
Framing Runs5.8 · C
96
Pop Time1.9 · C
49
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.3 · C
23
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.9%
78
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.6%
36
Correct Decisions66.3%
52
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.315 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.372 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.316
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.386
RegressionNegative · -0.002
Opposing pitcherTanner Gordon
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)