Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Adley Rutschman

BAL · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs BOSRanger Suarez
Sample2183.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.5
F 11.7
V 12.0
Model 18.0% Market 11.9% Gap +5.6pp
DraftKings 710 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 56.4% Market 75.6% Gap +14.6pp
FanDuel 135 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 20.3% Market -- Gap +6.0pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
55
Exit velocity88.7
60
Hard-hit%41.4%
64
xBA0.323
56
xSLG0.522
57
xwOBA0.341
85
BB%10.2%
70
Bat speed69.0
40
K%15.5%
86
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.8 · C
79
Catcher Throwing3.6 · C
98
Framing Runs5.7 · C
95
Pop Time1.9 · C
57
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · C
24
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.9%
78
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.7%
36
Correct Decisions66.2%
51
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
69
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.315 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.372 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.323
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.386
RegressionNegative · -0.007
Opposing pitcherRanger Suarez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)